iarwain1 comments on Open Thread, January 4-10, 2016

iarwain1 11 Jan 2016 21:32 UTC
3 points
So probability of either Trump or Cruz is 100%?
- OrphanWilde 11 Jan 2016 21:40 UTC
  −2 points
  Parent
  No, ~83%
  - ChristianKl 11 Jan 2016 21:58 UTC
    0 points
    Parent
    How do you go from Trump to get Republican nomination: 65% and Cruz to get Republican nomination: 35% to 83%?
    - OrphanWilde 11 Jan 2016 23:40 UTC
      −2 points
      Parent
      Rephrase those as the inverse probabilities (Trump’s probability of losing is 35%, Cruz’s is 65%), and it will make more sense.
      - g_pepper 12 Jan 2016 0:06 UTC
        4 points
        Parent
        It seems to me that if the probability of Trump winning is 35% and the probability of Cruz winning is 65%, then the probability of Trump or Cruz winning is 100% (since the probability of Cruz AND Trump wining is 0%).