Funny thing— your message seemed to be phrased as disagreeing, so I was all set to post a devastating reply. But after I tried to find points of actual disagreement, I couldn’t. So I will write a reply of violent agreement.
Your points about the dissimilarity between aerospace in 1972 and AI in 2024 are good ones. Note that my original message was about how close current technology is to AGI. The part about aerospace was just because my rationalist virtue required me to point out a case where an analogous argument would have failed. I don’t think it’s likely.
Was Concorde “inherently a bad idea”? No, but “inherently” is doing the work here. It lost money and didn’t lead anywhere, which is the criteria on which such an engineering project must be judged. It didn’t matter how glorious, beautiful or innovative it was. It’s a pyramid that was built even though it wasn’t efficient.
The impossibility of traveling faster than the speed of light was a lot less obvious in 1961.
The impossibility of traveling faster than the speed of light was a lot less obvious in 1961.
I would argue that’s questionable—they knew relativity very well in 1961 and all the physicists would have been able to roll out the obvious theoretical objections. But obvious the difficulties of approaching the speed of light (via e.g. ramscoop engine, solar sail, nuclear propulsion etc) are another story.
Was Concorde “inherently a bad idea”? No, but “inherently” is doing the work here. It lost money and didn’t lead anywhere, which is the criteria on which such an engineering project must be judged. It didn’t matter how glorious, beautiful or innovative it was. It’s a pyramid that was built even though it wasn’t efficient.
I guess my point is that there are objective limits and then there are cultural ones. We do most things only for the sake of making money, but as far as human cultures go we are perhaps more the exception than the rule. And in the end individuals often do the opposite—they make money to do things, things they like that play to their personal values but don’t necessarily turn out a profit all the time. A different culture could have concluded that the Concorde was a success because it was awesome, and we should do more of that. In such a culture in fact the Concorde might even have been a financial success, because people would have been more willing to pay more money to witness it first hand. Since here the argument involves more the inherent limits of technology and/or science, I’d say we should be careful to separate out cultural effects. Self-sustaining Mars colonies, for example, are probably a pipe dream with current technology. But the only reason why we don’t have a Moon base yet is that we don’t give enough of a shit. If we cared to build one, we probably could have by now.
Funny thing— your message seemed to be phrased as disagreeing, so I was all set to post a devastating reply. But after I tried to find points of actual disagreement, I couldn’t. So I will write a reply of violent agreement.
Your points about the dissimilarity between aerospace in 1972 and AI in 2024 are good ones. Note that my original message was about how close current technology is to AGI. The part about aerospace was just because my rationalist virtue required me to point out a case where an analogous argument would have failed. I don’t think it’s likely.
Was Concorde “inherently a bad idea”? No, but “inherently” is doing the work here. It lost money and didn’t lead anywhere, which is the criteria on which such an engineering project must be judged. It didn’t matter how glorious, beautiful or innovative it was. It’s a pyramid that was built even though it wasn’t efficient.
The impossibility of traveling faster than the speed of light was a lot less obvious in 1961.
I would argue that’s questionable—they knew relativity very well in 1961 and all the physicists would have been able to roll out the obvious theoretical objections. But obvious the difficulties of approaching the speed of light (via e.g. ramscoop engine, solar sail, nuclear propulsion etc) are another story.
I guess my point is that there are objective limits and then there are cultural ones. We do most things only for the sake of making money, but as far as human cultures go we are perhaps more the exception than the rule. And in the end individuals often do the opposite—they make money to do things, things they like that play to their personal values but don’t necessarily turn out a profit all the time. A different culture could have concluded that the Concorde was a success because it was awesome, and we should do more of that. In such a culture in fact the Concorde might even have been a financial success, because people would have been more willing to pay more money to witness it first hand. Since here the argument involves more the inherent limits of technology and/or science, I’d say we should be careful to separate out cultural effects. Self-sustaining Mars colonies, for example, are probably a pipe dream with current technology. But the only reason why we don’t have a Moon base yet is that we don’t give enough of a shit. If we cared to build one, we probably could have by now.