While I don’t know much about your AGi expertise, I agree that MIRI is missing an experienced top-level executive who knows how to structure, implement and risk-mitigate an ambitious project like FAI and has a track record to prove it. Such a person would help prevent flailing about and wasting time and resources. I am not sure what other projects are in this reference class and whether MIRI can find and hire a person like that, so maybe they are doing what they can with the meager budget they’ve got. Do you think that the Manhattan project and the Space Shuttle are in the ballpark of the FAI? My guess is that they don’t even come close in terms of ambition, risk, effort or complexity.
I am not sure what other projects are in this reference class and whether MIRI can find and hire a person like that, so maybe they are doing what they can with the meager budget they’ve got.
Project managers are typically expensive because they are senior people before they enter management. Someone who has never actually worked at the bottom rung of the ladder is often quite useless in a project management role. But that’s not to say that you can’t find someone young who has done a short stint at the bottom, got PMP certified (or whatever), and has 1-2 projects under their belt. It wouldn’t be cheap, but not horribly expensive either.
On the other hand, Luke seems pretty on the ball with respect to administrative stuff. It may be sufficient to get him some project manager training and some very senior project management advisers.
Neither one of these would be a long-term adequate solution. You need very senior, very experienced project management people in order to tackle something as large as FAI, and stay on schedule and on budget. But in terms of just making sure the organization is focused on the right issues, either of the above would be a drastic improvement, and enough for now.
Do you think that the Manhattan project and the Space Shuttle are in the ballpark of the FAI? My guess is that they don’t even come close in terms of ambition, risk, effort or complexity.
60 years ago, maybe. However these days advances in cognitive science, narrow AI, and computational tools are advancing at rapid paces on their own. The problem for MIRI should be that of ensuring a positive singularity via careful leverage of the machine intelligence already being developed for other purposes. That’s a much smaller project, and something I think a small but adequately funded organization should be able to pull off.
While I don’t know much about your AGi expertise, I agree that MIRI is missing an experienced top-level executive who knows how to structure, implement and risk-mitigate an ambitious project like FAI and has a track record to prove it. Such a person would help prevent flailing about and wasting time and resources. I am not sure what other projects are in this reference class and whether MIRI can find and hire a person like that, so maybe they are doing what they can with the meager budget they’ve got. Do you think that the Manhattan project and the Space Shuttle are in the ballpark of the FAI? My guess is that they don’t even come close in terms of ambition, risk, effort or complexity.
Project managers are typically expensive because they are senior people before they enter management. Someone who has never actually worked at the bottom rung of the ladder is often quite useless in a project management role. But that’s not to say that you can’t find someone young who has done a short stint at the bottom, got PMP certified (or whatever), and has 1-2 projects under their belt. It wouldn’t be cheap, but not horribly expensive either.
On the other hand, Luke seems pretty on the ball with respect to administrative stuff. It may be sufficient to get him some project manager training and some very senior project management advisers.
Neither one of these would be a long-term adequate solution. You need very senior, very experienced project management people in order to tackle something as large as FAI, and stay on schedule and on budget. But in terms of just making sure the organization is focused on the right issues, either of the above would be a drastic improvement, and enough for now.
60 years ago, maybe. However these days advances in cognitive science, narrow AI, and computational tools are advancing at rapid paces on their own. The problem for MIRI should be that of ensuring a positive singularity via careful leverage of the machine intelligence already being developed for other purposes. That’s a much smaller project, and something I think a small but adequately funded organization should be able to pull off.