Hmmm. My impression is that religion is on the rise in some places, and declining in other places. And that a generation from now, it is likely that religion will be in decline where it is rising now, and on the rise where it now declines.
See Algeria and France for an example of what happens to a secularized society when resisting religious extremists.
Two excellent examples supporting my fluctuation viewpoint. Two hundred twenty years ago in France, the ‘extremists’ were the secularists. Algeria’s first post-revolutionary government was ultra-secularist, a la Ataturk. Of course that led to a religious reaction.
So, if an extremist is both stronger and reproduces better than a non-extremist, I’m pretty sure the extremist will win.
Raw reproduction rate is relatively unimportant in cultural evolution. You need to not only reproduce, but reproduce “in kind”. Rapidly reproducing subcultures tend to have high attrition rates. Orthodox Jews tend to become secular rather than the reverse. Amish children leave the farm and the faith. It is starting to happen to the Hutterites too. And it is definitely happening to Muslim immigrant populations in Europe.
In fact, the universality of this phenomenon is almost spooky. Maybe it is a side-effect of large family sizes. Kids can’t wait to grow up and try out something totally different. By a simple evolutionary psychology argument, we might expect this to be a universal human characteristic.
PS. I realize this comment is long on assertion, but short on documentation. But then, so was yours. If we continue the conversation, we should both try to do better. :)
Hmmm. My impression is that religion is on the rise in some places, and declining in other places. And that a generation from now, it is likely that religion will be in decline where it is rising now, and on the rise where it now declines.
Two excellent examples supporting my fluctuation viewpoint. Two hundred twenty years ago in France, the ‘extremists’ were the secularists. Algeria’s first post-revolutionary government was ultra-secularist, a la Ataturk. Of course that led to a religious reaction.
Raw reproduction rate is relatively unimportant in cultural evolution. You need to not only reproduce, but reproduce “in kind”. Rapidly reproducing subcultures tend to have high attrition rates. Orthodox Jews tend to become secular rather than the reverse. Amish children leave the farm and the faith. It is starting to happen to the Hutterites too. And it is definitely happening to Muslim immigrant populations in Europe.
In fact, the universality of this phenomenon is almost spooky. Maybe it is a side-effect of large family sizes. Kids can’t wait to grow up and try out something totally different. By a simple evolutionary psychology argument, we might expect this to be a universal human characteristic.
PS. I realize this comment is long on assertion, but short on documentation. But then, so was yours. If we continue the conversation, we should both try to do better. :)