Maybe it’s wishful thinking but I think the stagnation is temporary. I think there is reason to believe that progress can come in waves. Scientific advancements of the early 1900s led to much of the technological advancements of pre and post war era. So to, I think it reasonable that computation advancements of the last 30 or so years will lead to a number of interesting advancements:
I think it is reasonable to assume that many of the items from the list below will happen in the next 10 to 20 years.
It’s the grid-level storage problem. Solar panels don’t produce much energy at night, wind doesn’t blow all the time, etc., so you need to produce extra energy and store it for when production is less than demand.
Maybe it’s wishful thinking but I think the stagnation is temporary. I think there is reason to believe that progress can come in waves. Scientific advancements of the early 1900s led to much of the technological advancements of pre and post war era. So to, I think it reasonable that computation advancements of the last 30 or so years will lead to a number of interesting advancements:
I think it is reasonable to assume that many of the items from the list below will happen in the next 10 to 20 years.
Self driving cars
2.5x batteries
electric cars
electric airplanes
independence from fossil fuels
Genetic engineering revolution (crispr, mRNA vaccines etc..)
Large advances in AI possibly AGI.
Fusion ?
If/when we hit AGI there will be a huge wave of progress.
Maybe, see Dustin’s comment above for related discussion
I don’t see how “2.5 batteries” could mean “independence from fossil fuels”.
It’s the grid-level storage problem. Solar panels don’t produce much energy at night, wind doesn’t blow all the time, etc., so you need to produce extra energy and store it for when production is less than demand.