Not disagreeing. Am still interested in a longer-form view of why the 44x estimate overestimates, if you’re interested in writing it (think you mentioned looking into it one time).
It’s like starting with an uncompressed image, and then compressing it farther each year using different compressors (which aren’t even the best known, as there were better compressors available known earlier or in the beginning), and then measuring the data size reduction over time and claiming it as a form of “general software efficiency improvement”. It’s nothing remotely comparable to moore’s law progress (which more generally actually improves a wide variety of software).
Not disagreeing. Am still interested in a longer-form view of why the 44x estimate overestimates, if you’re interested in writing it (think you mentioned looking into it one time).
It’s like starting with an uncompressed image, and then compressing it farther each year using different compressors (which aren’t even the best known, as there were better compressors available known earlier or in the beginning), and then measuring the data size reduction over time and claiming it as a form of “general software efficiency improvement”. It’s nothing remotely comparable to moore’s law progress (which more generally actually improves a wide variety of software).