The TLDR has multiple conclusions but this is my winner:
My conclusion—springing to a great degree from how painful seeking clear predictions in 700 pages of words has been—is that if anyone says “I have a great track record” without pointing to specific predictions that they made, you should probably ignore them, or maybe point out their lack of epistemic virtue if you have the energy to spare for doing that kind of criticism productively.
There is a skill in writing things that, when read later, are likely to be interpreted as correct predictions of things that happened between writing and reading. This is the skill of astrologers. There is another skill in accurately predicting the future, and writing that down. This is the skill of forecasters.
The post, and the comments and reviews on this post, show this off. People disagree with the author and each other. If there is serious debate over how a prediction resolves after the resolution time has passed, it might have been astrology the whole time.
The author notes both Hanson and Yudkowsky are hard to score. This problem afflicts many smart people and maybe also you. It definitely afflicts me. It’s not about one person.
The TLDR has multiple conclusions but this is my winner:
There is a skill in writing things that, when read later, are likely to be interpreted as correct predictions of things that happened between writing and reading. This is the skill of astrologers. There is another skill in accurately predicting the future, and writing that down. This is the skill of forecasters.
The post, and the comments and reviews on this post, show this off. People disagree with the author and each other. If there is serious debate over how a prediction resolves after the resolution time has passed, it might have been astrology the whole time.
This point is also made in Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records from 2022. I think this post adds substantial evidence to that perspective on forecasting in general.
The author notes both Hanson and Yudkowsky are hard to score. This problem afflicts many smart people and maybe also you. It definitely afflicts me. It’s not about one person.