Note that Hanson currently thinks the chances of AI doom are < 1%
I think this is a common misconception of Hanson’s views. If you define “doom” as human extinction, he’s put it at about 30% within one year after human-level AI (I don’t have a more recent link on hand but I’ve seen him talk about it on Twitter a few times, and I don’t think he’s changed his views substantially).
Hanson’s chance on extinction is close to a 100%. He just thinks it’s slower. He is optimistic about something that most would call a dystopia (a very interesting technological race that will conquer the stars before the grabby aliens do). A discussion between Yudkowsky and Hanson is about are we dying fast or slow. It is not really a doomer vs non-doomer debate from my perspective (still a very interesting debate btw, both have good arguments).
I do appreciate the Hanson perspective. It is well thought out and coherent. I just would not call it optimistic (because of the extinction). I have no ready example of a non-extinction perspective coherent view on the future. Does anybody have a good example of a coherent non-extinction view?
Yeah, one example is the view that AGI won’t happen, either because it’s just too hard and humanity won’t devote sufficient resources to it, or because we recognize it will kill us all.
I think this is a common misconception of Hanson’s views. If you define “doom” as human extinction, he’s put it at about 30% within one year after human-level AI (I don’t have a more recent link on hand but I’ve seen him talk about it on Twitter a few times, and I don’t think he’s changed his views substantially).
Hanson’s chance on extinction is close to a 100%. He just thinks it’s slower. He is optimistic about something that most would call a dystopia (a very interesting technological race that will conquer the stars before the grabby aliens do). A discussion between Yudkowsky and Hanson is about are we dying fast or slow. It is not really a doomer vs non-doomer debate from my perspective (still a very interesting debate btw, both have good arguments).
I do appreciate the Hanson perspective. It is well thought out and coherent. I just would not call it optimistic (because of the extinction). I have no ready example of a non-extinction perspective coherent view on the future. Does anybody have a good example of a coherent non-extinction view?
Yeah, one example is the view that AGI won’t happen, either because it’s just too hard and humanity won’t devote sufficient resources to it, or because we recognize it will kill us all.