I’d expect an Altman-led AI chip maker to be worse than other companies and get outcompeted.
If $7 trillion of investment isn’t enough for oversupply or at least commoditization of chips for AI, then that’s a world in which property rights of AI chips are no longer guaranteed.
In any case, this post isn’t even evaluating investments by profitability, it’s evaluating them by societal consumer surplus. Those are very different: 1 involves incremental value from current production, while the other involves marginal value from future production with the investment.
Right—but that’s totally unrelated to the logic of the $7T ask. Which makes this an odd post. What is the point of speculating about the good that could be done with $7T that magically appears rather than speculating about how money could actually be garnered for good causes?
As an aside, Altman didn’t ask for 7T for one business he would run—I think he said it would take that much to create an alternate chip supply chain in total. See this excellent breakdown of the chip supply chain. There is a lot of money to be made in chips. It might or might not make back investors money.
Interesting point about the property rights. Of course I agree that we’ll probably hit RSI AGI before that money is made back and that things will get weird or stop
Edit: I did some more reading, you’re right that $7T is way more than you could reasonably spend on chip manufacturer. So I don’t and I’m not sure anyone knows what the $7T refers to, but I think it’s probably all capitol investment intended to turn a profit, not money from God.
...no?
I’d expect an Altman-led AI chip maker to be worse than other companies and get outcompeted.
If $7 trillion of investment isn’t enough for oversupply or at least commoditization of chips for AI, then that’s a world in which property rights of AI chips are no longer guaranteed.
In any case, this post isn’t even evaluating investments by profitability, it’s evaluating them by societal consumer surplus. Those are very different: 1 involves incremental value from current production, while the other involves marginal value from future production with the investment.
Right—but that’s totally unrelated to the logic of the $7T ask. Which makes this an odd post. What is the point of speculating about the good that could be done with $7T that magically appears rather than speculating about how money could actually be garnered for good causes?
As an aside, Altman didn’t ask for 7T for one business he would run—I think he said it would take that much to create an alternate chip supply chain in total. See this excellent breakdown of the chip supply chain. There is a lot of money to be made in chips. It might or might not make back investors money.
Interesting point about the property rights. Of course I agree that we’ll probably hit RSI AGI before that money is made back and that things will get weird or stop
Edit: I did some more reading, you’re right that $7T is way more than you could reasonably spend on chip manufacturer. So I don’t and I’m not sure anyone knows what the $7T refers to, but I think it’s probably all capitol investment intended to turn a profit, not money from God.