Newcomb’s problem isn’t a fact...it’s not an empirical problem to be solved. You should not be inferring “how time works” from it.
Yes, it’s not empirical (currently). It’s a thought experiment, which is mentioned a lot because it’s counter-intuitive. Arguably ‘being counter intuitive’ is an indicator that it is unlikely, i.e. obtaining enough information to create such a simulation and pay the energy cost to run it, and finish the computation before the simulated person dies is hard.
If an agent is complex enough to build multiple models , or simulations, they can run some virtual time forwards or backwards, or whatever....in a virtual sense, within the simulation. The important point is that a realistic agent loses information every time they go up another level of virtuality.
A simulation is level 1, a simulation of a simulation is level 2, etc.
obtaining enough information to create such a simulation and pay the energy cost to run it, and finish the computation before the simulated person dies is hard
For once, computational complexity isn’t the main problem. The main problem is that to mechanise Newcomb, you still need to make assumptions about time and causality...so a mechanisation of Newcomb is not going to tell you anything new about time and causality, only echo the assumptions it’s based on.
But time and causality are worth explaining because we have evidence of them.
Yes, it’s not empirical (currently). It’s a thought experiment, which is mentioned a lot because it’s counter-intuitive. Arguably ‘being counter intuitive’ is an indicator that it is unlikely, i.e. obtaining enough information to create such a simulation and pay the energy cost to run it, and finish the computation before the simulated person dies is hard.
What is a level of virtuality?
A simulation is level 1, a simulation of a simulation is level 2, etc.
For once, computational complexity isn’t the main problem. The main problem is that to mechanise Newcomb, you still need to make assumptions about time and causality...so a mechanisation of Newcomb is not going to tell you anything new about time and causality, only echo the assumptions it’s based on.
But time and causality are worth explaining because we have evidence of them.