Thanks! Yeah, I definitely agree that literally maximising for EV can be bad. The reason I heavily emphasised that is to convey the key point that you’re trying to make decisions under uncertainty, uncertainty is an inherent fact of life, and that, at least for me, thinking about EV leads to systematically better decisions. Because I’m sufficiently bad by default at accounting for uncertainty, that a focus on EV pushes me in the right direction.
In practice, the decision theory would be along the lines of “try estimating EV. If the answer is obviously, massively positive then do it, otherwise think harder”. (In which case maximise E(log(X)) and E(X) should give the same answer). And the post was similarly aimed at people who have such a strong bias, that thinking about EV is a nudge in the right direction.
Would you have preferred the post if framed around E(log(X))?
Thanks! Yeah, I definitely agree that literally maximising for EV can be bad. The reason I heavily emphasised that is to convey the key point that you’re trying to make decisions under uncertainty, uncertainty is an inherent fact of life, and that, at least for me, thinking about EV leads to systematically better decisions. Because I’m sufficiently bad by default at accounting for uncertainty, that a focus on EV pushes me in the right direction.
In practice, the decision theory would be along the lines of “try estimating EV. If the answer is obviously, massively positive then do it, otherwise think harder”. (In which case maximise E(log(X)) and E(X) should give the same answer). And the post was similarly aimed at people who have such a strong bias, that thinking about EV is a nudge in the right direction.
Would you have preferred the post if framed around E(log(X))?
Technically yes, but I know it’d be harder to use as a mental model in everyday life. And anyway, I have the same initial bias as you