Julian Morrison,
the conclusion I draw from your histogram is that monkey/octopus intelligence is easy to reach from dog, but not useful in most niches. Beyond that, it’s hard to reason for anthropic reasons. It could be that there’s a bottleneck getting past monkeys, but I’d guess that niches for which post-monkey intelligence is useful are extremely rare, but have increasing returns to intelligence and thus have intelligence take-off.
Julian Morrison, the conclusion I draw from your histogram is that monkey/octopus intelligence is easy to reach from dog, but not useful in most niches. Beyond that, it’s hard to reason for anthropic reasons. It could be that there’s a bottleneck getting past monkeys, but I’d guess that niches for which post-monkey intelligence is useful are extremely rare, but have increasing returns to intelligence and thus have intelligence take-off.