Has anything like that every happened in the entire history of the world
Yes, China after Mao.
It might not just be federal regulations. For example, if Republicans passed a freedom to build law that allowed landowners to quickly get permission to build we would see a massive construction boom.
You made a strong conjunction that deregulation lead to economic growth lead to popular support for the regime in four years. That definitely did not happen to China in the first four years after Mao’s death. Maybe if you cherry-pick 1980-1984 as the beginning of Deng’s real hold on power it is an example, but I doubt it.
Sure, if you want to open up the pathways and no longer predict a conjunction, I can’t stop you, but I do complain that this is a new prediction. But predicting that Trump will abolish States’ Right so quickly to have economic effects doesn’t seem very plausible to me. I wouldn’t be focusing on elections in that scenario.
For example, if Republicans passed a freedom to build law that allowed landowners to quickly get permission to build we would see a massive construction boom.
Given that land use is mostly legislated by the individual states, why do you think a Republican congress would infringe on state laws that strongly?
Over the next 4 years, 50% that Republicans will enact such a law or that Trump with use regulations to make it easier to build by, for example, claiming it’s racist for San Francisco to restrict the building of low income housing. But I’m not willing to bet on this because it would be hard to define the bet’s winning conditions.
Yes, China after Mao.
It might not just be federal regulations. For example, if Republicans passed a freedom to build law that allowed landowners to quickly get permission to build we would see a massive construction boom.
You made a strong conjunction that deregulation lead to economic growth lead to popular support for the regime in four years. That definitely did not happen to China in the first four years after Mao’s death. Maybe if you cherry-pick 1980-1984 as the beginning of Deng’s real hold on power it is an example, but I doubt it.
Sure, if you want to open up the pathways and no longer predict a conjunction, I can’t stop you, but I do complain that this is a new prediction. But predicting that Trump will abolish States’ Right so quickly to have economic effects doesn’t seem very plausible to me. I wouldn’t be focusing on elections in that scenario.
the US regime operates on popular support in a way very unlike that of China.
The difference is that the regime in China actually has popular support while the US regime doesn’t.
Given that land use is mostly legislated by the individual states, why do you think a Republican congress would infringe on state laws that strongly?
The commerce clause + big cities are controlled by the left so Republicans would be willing to step on their power+Trump is a builder.
What’s you credence for this event?
Over the next 4 years, 50% that Republicans will enact such a law or that Trump with use regulations to make it easier to build by, for example, claiming it’s racist for San Francisco to restrict the building of low income housing. But I’m not willing to bet on this because it would be hard to define the bet’s winning conditions.