I doubt the remaining trade barriers imposed by the US government are making much difference to overall US growth. As far as I know, models which don’t crowbar in optimistic second-order effects (like big jumps in productivity) estimate that trade liberalization would raise US GDP by ~ $10 billion a year. That’s a big number, but surely one has to compare it to existing US GDP: $18,560 billion a year.
This gives me the back of the envelope estimate that trade barriers are depriving the US of about 0.05% of GDP. American voters would scarcely notice that.
I think in January I read you as amplifying James_Miller’s point, giving “tariff and other barriers” as an example of something to slot into his “Government regulations” claim (hence why I thought my comment was germane). But in light of your new comment I probably got your original intent backwards? In which case, fair enough!
You should take into account that tariff and other barriers to trade are a form of government regulation.
I doubt the remaining trade barriers imposed by the US government are making much difference to overall US growth. As far as I know, models which don’t crowbar in optimistic second-order effects (like big jumps in productivity) estimate that trade liberalization would raise US GDP by ~ $10 billion a year. That’s a big number, but surely one has to compare it to existing US GDP: $18,560 billion a year.
This gives me the back of the envelope estimate that trade barriers are depriving the US of about 0.05% of GDP. American voters would scarcely notice that.
Trump was saying he would increase trade barriers, so current levels are not the point.
I think in January I read you as amplifying James_Miller’s point, giving “tariff and other barriers” as an example of something to slot into his “Government regulations” claim (hence why I thought my comment was germane). But in light of your new comment I probably got your original intent backwards? In which case, fair enough!