See Prediction market. Presumably the currency would be your current karma score. He might not intend a full blown market, possibly just a system of organized betting. Robin Hanson is quite fond of this sort of system since it does a good job of tracking who is making good predictions and who is not, and aggregates the collective intelligence of markets to get better estimates on possible events. I’m not sure how well this would work given that karma is being constantly added into the system.
There are lots of ways of setting up a prediction market, here is the simplest: Imagine that it will soon be objectively determined whether X=1 or X=0. There would be a separate section in LessWrong for karma bets. In this section you could offer a bet, i.e. I give you 20 karma if X=1 and you give me 10 karma if X=0. One would click on this bet to accept. The sum total of all your karma bets couldn’t, at the time you made a bet, exceed your total karma.
An administrator would have to decide what events could be bet on, and which side won each bet. I would be happy to do this, although of course Robin Hanson would be the best person for this job. I don’t have the skills to help you with the programming.
Could you spell out what you mean by this?
See Prediction market. Presumably the currency would be your current karma score. He might not intend a full blown market, possibly just a system of organized betting. Robin Hanson is quite fond of this sort of system since it does a good job of tracking who is making good predictions and who is not, and aggregates the collective intelligence of markets to get better estimates on possible events. I’m not sure how well this would work given that karma is being constantly added into the system.
Yeah, I know what prediction markets are, but I’m not sure what James’ proposal is, exactly.
There are lots of ways of setting up a prediction market, here is the simplest: Imagine that it will soon be objectively determined whether X=1 or X=0. There would be a separate section in LessWrong for karma bets. In this section you could offer a bet, i.e. I give you 20 karma if X=1 and you give me 10 karma if X=0. One would click on this bet to accept. The sum total of all your karma bets couldn’t, at the time you made a bet, exceed your total karma.
An administrator would have to decide what events could be bet on, and which side won each bet. I would be happy to do this, although of course Robin Hanson would be the best person for this job. I don’t have the skills to help you with the programming.
Gotcha, thanks.