Totally agree. But in my interpretation of ADT, the DA should not stop us from trying to survive (in a comment above Stuart said that it is not DA, but “presumptuous philosopher” paradox) as there is still a small chance.
I also use what I call Meta Doomsday argument. It basically said that there is a logical uncertainty about if DA or any of its version are true, and thus we should give some subjective probability Ps to the DA is true. Let’s say it is 0.5.
As DA is also a probabilistic argument, we should multiply Ps on DA’s probability shift, and we will still get a large update in the extinction probability as a result.
Totally agree. But in my interpretation of ADT, the DA should not stop us from trying to survive (in a comment above Stuart said that it is not DA, but “presumptuous philosopher” paradox) as there is still a small chance.
I also use what I call Meta Doomsday argument. It basically said that there is a logical uncertainty about if DA or any of its version are true, and thus we should give some subjective probability Ps to the DA is true. Let’s say it is 0.5.
As DA is also a probabilistic argument, we should multiply Ps on DA’s probability shift, and we will still get a large update in the extinction probability as a result.
I agree with all this.