How responsible is CSET for this? CSET is the most highly funded longtermist-ish org, as far as I can tell from checking openbook.fyi (I could be wrong), so I’ve been trying to understand them better, since I don’t hear much about them on LW or the EA Forum. I suspected they were having a lot of impact “behind the scenes” (from my perspective), and maybe this is a reflection of that?
Aaron Bergman said on Twitter that for him, “the ex ante probability of something at least this good by the US federal government relative to AI progress, from the perspective of 5 years ago was ~1%[.] Ie this seems 99th-percentile-in-2018 good to me”, and many people seemed to agree. Stefan Schubert then said that “if people think the policy response is “99th-percentile-in-2018″, then that suggests their models have been seriously wrong.” I was wondering, do people here agree with Aaron that this EO appeared unlikely back then, and, if so, what do you think the correct takeaway from the existence of this EO is?
This made me wonder about a few things:
How responsible is CSET for this? CSET is the most highly funded longtermist-ish org, as far as I can tell from checking openbook.fyi (I could be wrong), so I’ve been trying to understand them better, since I don’t hear much about them on LW or the EA Forum. I suspected they were having a lot of impact “behind the scenes” (from my perspective), and maybe this is a reflection of that?
Aaron Bergman said on Twitter that for him, “the ex ante probability of something at least this good by the US federal government relative to AI progress, from the perspective of 5 years ago was ~1%[.] Ie this seems 99th-percentile-in-2018 good to me”, and many people seemed to agree. Stefan Schubert then said that “if people think the policy response is “99th-percentile-in-2018″, then that suggests their models have been seriously wrong.” I was wondering, do people here agree with Aaron that this EO appeared unlikely back then, and, if so, what do you think the correct takeaway from the existence of this EO is?