Two quick observations, one perhaps trivial but perhaps worth mentioning.
Trivial first. How comfortable are you with noting that the Christians of old we’re fine claiming the Earth as the center of the observable universe as if it were somehow seriously wrong? My understanding—and I could be wrong here I’ll accept—is that current empirical observations pretty much supports that view. Seems like no matter which way we look we see as far into the distance universe. That would put us pretty much center of the spherical limits of vision for us. Is rejecting the center view based on clear empirical data or is that a view based on belief in theory? Which would make it a bit of a faith statement.
Not trying to argue we are at the center (I’m not even sure the concept of center of the universe is good), but really asking about just what potential biases and assumption are held related to deciding on “crazy”.
With regards to the 50%+1 thought. Seems like that is close to the Median Voter idea that suggests political positions and agenda should be pushed to some centerist positions. I think that is wrong. I think the parties will try to keep their positions as close to what their ideology requires and then move positions around based on where the marginal gains and losses of votes push them. I’m also assuming that the non-voting population is not some static set of the total population. In that setting the party position should not be expected to only move towards the other party’s (or some blended position with multiple parties) position to capture votes. It could just as well move away depending on just what the current population of potential voters is like.
So in a polity like the USA I could easily see that the parties would move to position where, in the extreme, they are talking to completely different groups of people who would never vote for the other party. Here the bit is getting them to vote when they were not voting before. That would produce a bar-bell type graph of position on the left-right spectrum with an increasingly larger gap between the peaks of the curves.
Whether or not that type of outcome is crazy or not, hmmmm. Might be deserving but from the inside of both camps I suspect they think they are all sane and everyone else is mad.
I do not think we have any particular reason to believe that the Earth is the center of the universe. Statistically, it’s got almost no chance of this being true on priors, and no evidence I’m aware of singles out Earth to update on.
My sense is that there’s a big difference between:
”The clear best guess we have is that the Earth is the center of the universe; it makes the most sense with everything we see.”
and
“The Earth is definitely the center of the universe, and just in case you weren’t sure, also God said so explicitly when he put us here.”
...and that the difference lines up closely with what I, at least, am gesturing at when I use the word “crazy.”
So in a polity like the USA I could easily see that the parties would move to position where, in the extreme, they are talking to completely different groups of people who would never vote for the other party. Here the bit is getting them to vote when they were not voting before. That would produce a bar-bell type graph of position on the left-right spectrum with an increasingly larger gap between the peaks of the curves.
Makes sense to me as an alternate dynamic that would explain a lot of the same facts.
Two quick observations, one perhaps trivial but perhaps worth mentioning.
Trivial first. How comfortable are you with noting that the Christians of old we’re fine claiming the Earth as the center of the observable universe as if it were somehow seriously wrong? My understanding—and I could be wrong here I’ll accept—is that current empirical observations pretty much supports that view. Seems like no matter which way we look we see as far into the distance universe. That would put us pretty much center of the spherical limits of vision for us. Is rejecting the center view based on clear empirical data or is that a view based on belief in theory? Which would make it a bit of a faith statement.
Not trying to argue we are at the center (I’m not even sure the concept of center of the universe is good), but really asking about just what potential biases and assumption are held related to deciding on “crazy”.
With regards to the 50%+1 thought. Seems like that is close to the Median Voter idea that suggests political positions and agenda should be pushed to some centerist positions. I think that is wrong. I think the parties will try to keep their positions as close to what their ideology requires and then move positions around based on where the marginal gains and losses of votes push them. I’m also assuming that the non-voting population is not some static set of the total population. In that setting the party position should not be expected to only move towards the other party’s (or some blended position with multiple parties) position to capture votes. It could just as well move away depending on just what the current population of potential voters is like.
So in a polity like the USA I could easily see that the parties would move to position where, in the extreme, they are talking to completely different groups of people who would never vote for the other party. Here the bit is getting them to vote when they were not voting before. That would produce a bar-bell type graph of position on the left-right spectrum with an increasingly larger gap between the peaks of the curves.
Whether or not that type of outcome is crazy or not, hmmmm. Might be deserving but from the inside of both camps I suspect they think they are all sane and everyone else is mad.
I do not think we have any particular reason to believe that the Earth is the center of the universe. Statistically, it’s got almost no chance of this being true on priors, and no evidence I’m aware of singles out Earth to update on.
My sense is that there’s a big difference between:
”The clear best guess we have is that the Earth is the center of the universe; it makes the most sense with everything we see.”
and
“The Earth is definitely the center of the universe, and just in case you weren’t sure, also God said so explicitly when he put us here.”
...and that the difference lines up closely with what I, at least, am gesturing at when I use the word “crazy.”
Makes sense to me as an alternate dynamic that would explain a lot of the same facts.