Bonus question: if Bayes didn’t discover it, when would it have to be discovered? (full speculation mode)
No speculation needed: Laplace would have discovered it, publishing in 1774, nine years after Bayes’ Essay appeared.
There’s no way it wouldn’t have been discovered. The mathematics is simple, and “inverse probability” (as it was called then) is a major part of what is done with probability and statistics.
No speculation needed: Laplace would have discovered it, publishing in 1774, nine years after Bayes’ Essay appeared.
There’s no way it wouldn’t have been discovered. The mathematics is simple, and “inverse probability” (as it was called then) is a major part of what is done with probability and statistics.