Uncertainty is a statement about my brain not the real world, if you replicate the initial conditions then it will always land either Head or Tails, so even if the coin is “fair” p(H∣θ)=0.5, then maybe p(H∣θ,very good at physics)=0.95. the uncertainty comes form be being stupid and thus being unable to predict the next coin toss.
Also there are two things we are uncertain about, we are uncertain about θ (the coins frequency) and we are uncertain about p(H∣θ), the next coin toss
These subjective Bayesians… :) I feel the same way about that statement. Could you please elaborate?
Uncertainty is a statement about my brain not the real world, if you replicate the initial conditions then it will always land either Head or Tails, so even if the coin is “fair” p(H∣θ)=0.5, then maybe p(H∣θ,very good at physics)=0.95. the uncertainty comes form be being stupid and thus being unable to predict the next coin toss.
Also there are two things we are uncertain about, we are uncertain about θ (the coins frequency) and we are uncertain about p(H∣θ), the next coin toss