we’re lacking all 4. We’re lacking a coherent map of the polycrisis (if anyone wants to do and/or fund a version of aisafety.world for the polycrisis, I’m interested in contributing)
Joshua Williams created an initial version of a metacrisis map and I suggested to him a couple of days ago to make the development of such a resource more open, e.g., to turn it into a Github repository.
I think there’s a ton of funding available in this space, specifically I think speculating on the markets informed by the kind of worldview that allows one to perceive the polycrisis has significant alpha. I think we can make much better predictions about the next 5-10 years than the market, and I don’t think most of the market is even trying to make good predictions on those timescales.
Do you mean that it’s possible to earn by betting long against the current market sentiment? I think this is wrong for multiple reasons, but perhaps most importantly, because the market specifically doesn’t measure how well we are faring on a lot of components of polycrisis—e.g., market would be great if all people are turned into addicted zombies. Secondly, people don’t even try to make predictions in the stock market anymore—its turned into a completely irrational valve of liquidity that is moved by Elon Musk’s tweets, narratives, and memes more than by objective factors.
I mildly prefer polycrisis because it’s less abstract. The metacrisis points toward a systems dynamic for which we have no adequate levers, whereas the polycrisis points toward the effects in the real world that we need to deal with.
I am assuming we live in a world that is going to be reshaped (or ended) by technology (probably AGI) within a few decades, and that if this fails to occur the inevitable result of the metacrisis is collapse.
I think the most impact I can have is to kick the can down the road far enough that the accelerationistas get their shot. I don’t pretend this is the world I would choose to be living in, or the horse I’d want to be betting on. It is simply my current understanding of reality.
Hence: polycrisis. Deal with the symptoms. Keep the patient alive.
Joshua Williams created an initial version of a metacrisis map and I suggested to him a couple of days ago to make the development of such a resource more open, e.g., to turn it into a Github repository.
Do you mean that it’s possible to earn by betting long against the current market sentiment? I think this is wrong for multiple reasons, but perhaps most importantly, because the market specifically doesn’t measure how well we are faring on a lot of components of polycrisis—e.g., market would be great if all people are turned into addicted zombies. Secondly, people don’t even try to make predictions in the stock market anymore—its turned into a completely irrational valve of liquidity that is moved by Elon Musk’s tweets, narratives, and memes more than by objective factors.
It’s a good presentation, but it isn’t a map.
A literal map of the polycrisis[1] can show:
The various key facets (pollution, climate, biorisk, energy, ecology, resource constraints, globalization, economy, demography etc etc)
Relative degrees of fragility / timelines (e.g. climate change being one of the areas where we have the most slack)
Many of the significant orgs/projects working on these facets, with special emphasis placed on those that are aware of the wider polycrisis
Many of the significant communities
Many of the significant funders
In a nutshell
I mildly prefer polycrisis because it’s less abstract. The metacrisis points toward a systems dynamic for which we have no adequate levers, whereas the polycrisis points toward the effects in the real world that we need to deal with.
I am assuming we live in a world that is going to be reshaped (or ended) by technology (probably AGI) within a few decades, and that if this fails to occur the inevitable result of the metacrisis is collapse.
I think the most impact I can have is to kick the can down the road far enough that the accelerationistas get their shot. I don’t pretend this is the world I would choose to be living in, or the horse I’d want to be betting on. It is simply my current understanding of reality.
Hence: polycrisis. Deal with the symptoms. Keep the patient alive.