I think it’s worth noting that a fast mutating fast spreading endemic disease with a fatality rate 10x that of the flu, on a modern Earth of 7 billion people, is also unprecedented in the history of epidemiology, just like mass vaccination while a virus is endemic.
In terms of what the evolutionary pressures are, we’d be in uncharted territory regardless of what policies we chose.
At the same time, the fact that we are in uncharted territory means you can’t use basic logic or historical precedent to rule out bad outcomes.
There’s extensive discussion of OAS here and it’s clearly something that many immunologists have thought about deeply, yet no mention of effects on natural antibodies—https://www.statnews.com/2021/04/16/next-generation-covid-19-vaccines-are-supposed-to-be-better-some-experts-worry-they-could-be-worse/
Also I asked a similar question and got this response on a previous thread—https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6apSCHHuWyxK635pE/omicron-variant-post-1-we-re-f-ed-it-s-never-over?commentId=gmzKDuzK3h7GqSgZf
I think it’s worth noting that a fast mutating fast spreading endemic disease with a fatality rate 10x that of the flu, on a modern Earth of 7 billion people, is also unprecedented in the history of epidemiology, just like mass vaccination while a virus is endemic.
In terms of what the evolutionary pressures are, we’d be in uncharted territory regardless of what policies we chose.
At the same time, the fact that we are in uncharted territory means you can’t use basic logic or historical precedent to rule out bad outcomes.