I don’t remember which was my initial position. I got to the point that I could be confident in 1⁄2 because there’s no new information: waking and being asked is GUARANTEED to be experienced, subjectively, once (even if it’s twice to an observer, Beauty experiences it for the first time both times). And confident in 1⁄3 via bet-resolution framing and number of timelines that make predictions.
After a few iterations where the framing makes it insanely obvious in both directions, I deconstructed it to the point that I realize it depends on what actual question is being asked. Probability is purely subjective (modulo quantum measures, perhaps) - the truth is 0 or 1, only Beauty’s expectation/prediction changes, based on her framing.
What was the initial position? Do you remember the arguments that made you flip?
I don’t remember which was my initial position. I got to the point that I could be confident in 1⁄2 because there’s no new information: waking and being asked is GUARANTEED to be experienced, subjectively, once (even if it’s twice to an observer, Beauty experiences it for the first time both times). And confident in 1⁄3 via bet-resolution framing and number of timelines that make predictions.
After a few iterations where the framing makes it insanely obvious in both directions, I deconstructed it to the point that I realize it depends on what actual question is being asked. Probability is purely subjective (modulo quantum measures, perhaps) - the truth is 0 or 1, only Beauty’s expectation/prediction changes, based on her framing.