Sorry, I seem to have reached my character limit, so I’m continuing this in a reply to myself—I think this is important.
There’s no reason to think that incentives wouldn’t serve to maximize P(A|V). Bayes’ Theorem relates P(V|A) and P(A|V) as follows:
P(V|A)=P(A|V)⋅P(V)P(A)
The beauty of an incentive system is it would maximize both factors in the numerator while the denominator can stay more or less fixed (e.g. by the capacity of the venue). Same reduction in risk for people attending, at minimal cost.
Again, I want to emphasize that I can imagine a role for digital vaccine certificates in such a system, but the idea of vaccine passports presented at the door, just seems untenable.
It turns out that non-profits in New York State don’t need to obtain licenses to resell tickets. So it would be pretty easy for an event organizer in New York City to, say, sell a bunch of tickets in bulk to a large hospital system that uses MyChart. The hospital system can then resell the tickets to its own patients, as a promotion—possibly with a corporate sponsorship.
Sorry, I seem to have reached my character limit, so I’m continuing this in a reply to myself—I think this is important.
There’s no reason to think that incentives wouldn’t serve to maximize P(A|V). Bayes’ Theorem relates P(V|A) and P(A|V) as follows:
P(V|A)=P(A|V)⋅P(V)P(A)
The beauty of an incentive system is it would maximize both factors in the numerator while the denominator can stay more or less fixed (e.g. by the capacity of the venue). Same reduction in risk for people attending, at minimal cost.
Again, I want to emphasize that I can imagine a role for digital vaccine certificates in such a system, but the idea of vaccine passports presented at the door, just seems untenable.
It turns out that non-profits in New York State don’t need to obtain licenses to resell tickets. So it would be pretty easy for an event organizer in New York City to, say, sell a bunch of tickets in bulk to a large hospital system that uses MyChart. The hospital system can then resell the tickets to its own patients, as a promotion—possibly with a corporate sponsorship.