This seems like a clear example of “You shouldn’t adjust the probability that high just because you’re trying to avoid overconfidence; that’s privileging a complicated possibility.”
Has there been a post on this subject yet? Handling overconfidence in that sort of situation is complicated.
Thanks! I recall reading that one but didn’t recall.
It still leaves me with some doubt about how to handle uncertainty around the extremes without being pumpable or sometimes catastrophically wrong. I suppose some of that is inevitable given hardware that is both bounded and corrupted but I rather suspect there is some benefit to learning more. There’s probably a book or ten out there I could read.
Has there been a post on this subject yet? Handling overconfidence in that sort of situation is complicated.
http://lesswrong.com/lw/u6/horrible_lhc_inconsistency/
Thanks! I recall reading that one but didn’t recall.
It still leaves me with some doubt about how to handle uncertainty around the extremes without being pumpable or sometimes catastrophically wrong. I suppose some of that is inevitable given hardware that is both bounded and corrupted but I rather suspect there is some benefit to learning more. There’s probably a book or ten out there I could read.