They do slightly worse than simply averaging a bunch of estimates, and would be blown out of the water by even a naive histocratic algorithm (weighted average based on past predictor performance using Bayes).
Congratulations. You have discovered a way to make a fortune. Mind you, while you’re making your prediction you will have made your prediction wrong. That’s the point of markets. If you can beat them you get paid to improve them.
Congratulations. You have discovered a way to make a fortune. Mind you, while you’re making your prediction you will have made your prediction wrong. That’s the point of markets. If you can beat them you get paid to improve them.