Conservative judges → ban abortion → increased crime → government spends more energy trying to stop crime and less on FAI reserch → paperclips
But we’re into the realm of tiny minute one-in-a-million probabilities here. Altering Supreme Court appointments is not exactly the most effective way to fight x-risk by any stretch of the imagination.
Something like that could happen, but someone could just as easily come up with some opposite chain of events. And saying that you could still make an overall estimate of which is more likely is no different from saying that you can choose which religion is best for Pascal’s wager.
Well, its possible that e.g.
Conservative judges → ban abortion → increased crime → government spends more energy trying to stop crime and less on FAI reserch → paperclips
But we’re into the realm of tiny minute one-in-a-million probabilities here. Altering Supreme Court appointments is not exactly the most effective way to fight x-risk by any stretch of the imagination.
Something like that could happen, but someone could just as easily come up with some opposite chain of events. And saying that you could still make an overall estimate of which is more likely is no different from saying that you can choose which religion is best for Pascal’s wager.