You’re doing content-free handwaving. “Can be”, “meant to”—sure, a lot of things are possible, but we’re talking about EY suddenly gaining a formative insight into geopolitics on the basis of a 4-hour simulation. Conveniently, it matches his existing political bias. I wonder if playing a couple of Civ games should shape your view of history… :-/
The entire point of the exercise
Are you talking in general or about the specific scenario playthrough that EY participated in? How do you know what is the entire point of that exercise was?
What I was trying to do is to point out that you might not be understanding the situation correctly. I think you are getting hung up on the word “game.” This is not a game in the sense of a video game, or even dungeons and dragons. Rather, it is standard practice within the national security apparatus to transfer knowledge by means of simulation of events, and that is what is being described here. This should not be surprising—the realm of governance is that of human actions and responses in a world constrained by time and limited data. A typical mistake of someone “too smart for their own good” is to assume that they can just get better data, or think their way out of a situation, when the data itself is confused and possibly suspect and deep consideration carries with it the cost of inaction and giving your opponent more time. These sorts of simulations teach both how decision making occurs under time and resource pressures, and the various common failure modes. It is an educational exercise designed to draw accurate references from.
I wonder if playing a couple of Civ games should shape your view of history… :-/
Absolutely not, because Civ is not meant to accurately simulate historical decision making; it’s a game meant for entertainment, not decision-theoretic education. Am I really failing to make this point?
Are you talking in general or about the specific scenario playthrough that EY participated in? How do you know what is the entire point of that exercise was?
In general because I’m not sure what specific exercise he went through. But as I did say, this is standard practice in the industry, and industry I have been involved in. EY says at the very beginning of the narrative that it was a “game” (read: simulation) constructed and run by national security insiders. That was the clue that he was talking about a training exercise and not some live action role playing nonsense.
you might not be understanding the situation correctly
Sigh. It would simplify things if you were to assume I’m not stupid. I did explicitly mention “games/simulations/scenario playthroughs”...
I’m not getting hung up on the word “game”. I’m getting hung up on it being not empirical reality.
standard practice within the national security apparatus to transfer knowledge
I don’t think EY holds a security clearance which makes any simulations he’s allowed to participate in… very incomplete. This still looks like a mostly PR exercise to me.
These sorts of simulations teach both how decision making occurs under time and resource pressures, and the various common failure modes.
I agree. Therefore you design the simulation to teach what you want the participants to learn. As I mentioned, accuracy is merely an instrumental goal. And if the participants are not actually people who would be expected to make such decisions, your goals might well be different from just transferring knowledge.
I don’t think EY holds a security clearance which makes any simulations he’s allowed to participate in… very incomplete.
I don’t know specifically that he has a clearance but there might be good reasons for him to have a clearance. The purposes of MIRI call for him being able to talk with people about classified AI projects.
Palantir has classified AI and Thiel is likely capable of making the necessary introductions.
You’re doing content-free handwaving. “Can be”, “meant to”—sure, a lot of things are possible, but we’re talking about EY suddenly gaining a formative insight into geopolitics on the basis of a 4-hour simulation. Conveniently, it matches his existing political bias. I wonder if playing a couple of Civ games should shape your view of history… :-/
Are you talking in general or about the specific scenario playthrough that EY participated in? How do you know what is the entire point of that exercise was?
What I was trying to do is to point out that you might not be understanding the situation correctly. I think you are getting hung up on the word “game.” This is not a game in the sense of a video game, or even dungeons and dragons. Rather, it is standard practice within the national security apparatus to transfer knowledge by means of simulation of events, and that is what is being described here. This should not be surprising—the realm of governance is that of human actions and responses in a world constrained by time and limited data. A typical mistake of someone “too smart for their own good” is to assume that they can just get better data, or think their way out of a situation, when the data itself is confused and possibly suspect and deep consideration carries with it the cost of inaction and giving your opponent more time. These sorts of simulations teach both how decision making occurs under time and resource pressures, and the various common failure modes. It is an educational exercise designed to draw accurate references from.
Absolutely not, because Civ is not meant to accurately simulate historical decision making; it’s a game meant for entertainment, not decision-theoretic education. Am I really failing to make this point?
In general because I’m not sure what specific exercise he went through. But as I did say, this is standard practice in the industry, and industry I have been involved in. EY says at the very beginning of the narrative that it was a “game” (read: simulation) constructed and run by national security insiders. That was the clue that he was talking about a training exercise and not some live action role playing nonsense.
Sigh. It would simplify things if you were to assume I’m not stupid. I did explicitly mention “games/simulations/scenario playthroughs”...
I’m not getting hung up on the word “game”. I’m getting hung up on it being not empirical reality.
I don’t think EY holds a security clearance which makes any simulations he’s allowed to participate in… very incomplete. This still looks like a mostly PR exercise to me.
I agree. Therefore you design the simulation to teach what you want the participants to learn. As I mentioned, accuracy is merely an instrumental goal. And if the participants are not actually people who would be expected to make such decisions, your goals might well be different from just transferring knowledge.
I don’t know specifically that he has a clearance but there might be good reasons for him to have a clearance. The purposes of MIRI call for him being able to talk with people about classified AI projects.
Palantir has classified AI and Thiel is likely capable of making the necessary introductions.