I think you are missing the point. If I have a random variable between 0 and 10, than “random” changes will cause a regression to the mean. Thus, if the current state is bad, say 1, a many “random” changes are likely to be an improvement.
More simply, if our state is bad, we should take more risks.
The model of a scalar between 0 and 10 is bad because it doesn’t show the high dimensional nature with many different scenario that real world society has.
We have a huge decline in violence in the post-WWII are. The mean of history has a lot more violence as Steven Pinker lays out in “The Better Angels of Our Nature”.
I think you are missing the point. If I have a random variable between 0 and 10, than “random” changes will cause a regression to the mean. Thus, if the current state is bad, say 1, a many “random” changes are likely to be an improvement.
More simply, if our state is bad, we should take more risks.
The model of a scalar between 0 and 10 is bad because it doesn’t show the high dimensional nature with many different scenario that real world society has.
We have a huge decline in violence in the post-WWII are. The mean of history has a lot more violence as Steven Pinker lays out in “The Better Angels of Our Nature”.