Great post! Glad to see more discussion of the implications of short timelines on impactful work prioritization on LW.
These last two categories—influencing policy discussions and introducing research agendas—rely on social diffusion of ideas, and thistakes time. With shorter timelines in mind, this only make sense if your work can actually shape what other researchers do before AI capabilities advance significantly.
Arguably this is not just true of those two avenues for impactful work, but rather all avenues. If your work doesn’t cause someone in a position of power to make a better decision than they otherwise would (e.g., implement this AI control solution on a production model, appoint a better-informed person to lead such-and-such an AI project, care about AI safety because they saw a scary demo, etc.), it’s unlikely to matter. Since timelines are short and governments are likely to get involved soon, only a highly concentrated range of actors have final sway over decisions that matter.
Great post! Glad to see more discussion of the implications of short timelines on impactful work prioritization on LW.
Arguably this is not just true of those two avenues for impactful work, but rather all avenues. If your work doesn’t cause someone in a position of power to make a better decision than they otherwise would (e.g., implement this AI control solution on a production model, appoint a better-informed person to lead such-and-such an AI project, care about AI safety because they saw a scary demo, etc.), it’s unlikely to matter. Since timelines are short and governments are likely to get involved soon, only a highly concentrated range of actors have final sway over decisions that matter.