Yep, fair enough. I agree that an MTBF of millions of years is an alternative sustainable theory of victory.
Could you expand on “the challenge is almost entirely in getting to an acceptably low rate”? It’s not clear to me that that’s true. For example, it seems plausible that at some point nuclear risk was at an acceptably low rate (maybe post-fall of the USSR? I’m niether an expert nor old enough to remember) conditional on a further downward trend — but we didn’t get a further downward trend.
Yep, fair enough. I agree that an MTBF of millions of years is an alternative sustainable theory of victory.
Could you expand on “the challenge is almost entirely in getting to an acceptably low rate”? It’s not clear to me that that’s true. For example, it seems plausible that at some point nuclear risk was at an acceptably low rate (maybe post-fall of the USSR? I’m niether an expert nor old enough to remember) conditional on a further downward trend — but we didn’t get a further downward trend.