I mean, I think it would be more accurate to say something like “the die roll, as it’s uncorrelated with features of the decision, doesn’t give me any new information about which action is best,” but the reason why I point to CoEE is because it is actually a valid introspective technique to imagine acting by coinflip or dieroll and then see if you’re hoping for a particular result, which rhymes with the “if you can predictably update in direction X, then you should already be there.”
I mean, I think it would be more accurate to say something like “the die roll, as it’s uncorrelated with features of the decision, doesn’t give me any new information about which action is best,” but the reason why I point to CoEE is because it is actually a valid introspective technique to imagine acting by coinflip or dieroll and then see if you’re hoping for a particular result, which rhymes with the “if you can predictably update in direction X, then you should already be there.”