I think we might want to rephrase things here. We’re not currently in a recession by official measures I don’t think. Two quarters of negative GDP growth? First quarter will be low but I don’t think anyone is saying it will be negative. Second quarter is yet to be seen.
If the stay at home, lots of business shutdown, most factories idled and that runs through June or July we will probably get the official recession. I don’t think that will have been caused by any printing of money.
First quarter will be low but I don’t think anyone is saying it will be negative.
Metaculus says −6.8%. It seems very likely that March and April will be negative enough to generate 2 quarters of negative growth, even if growth resumes by May.
Was not aware of that but had not been seeing any predictions on Q1 estimates or revisions in the news sources I typically read. It will be interesting to see how good an estimate that turns into.
I do think March will be an interesting month for the data. I wonder if the pulling forward demand due to stock piling by so many might not end up skewing the aggregate data or show up some compilation anomalies due to this not being a normal patter of consumption.
Economics Explained argues that I’m wrong, and this recession was caused by high leverage on mediocre bets, just like the last two.
I think we might want to rephrase things here. We’re not currently in a recession by official measures I don’t think. Two quarters of negative GDP growth? First quarter will be low but I don’t think anyone is saying it will be negative. Second quarter is yet to be seen.
If the stay at home, lots of business shutdown, most factories idled and that runs through June or July we will probably get the official recession. I don’t think that will have been caused by any printing of money.
Metaculus says −6.8%. It seems very likely that March and April will be negative enough to generate 2 quarters of negative growth, even if growth resumes by May.
Was not aware of that but had not been seeing any predictions on Q1 estimates or revisions in the news sources I typically read. It will be interesting to see how good an estimate that turns into.
I do think March will be an interesting month for the data. I wonder if the pulling forward demand due to stock piling by so many might not end up skewing the aggregate data or show up some compilation anomalies due to this not being a normal patter of consumption.