If you had to put a rough number on how likely it is that a misaligned superintelligence would primarily value “small molecular squiggles” versus other types of misaligned goals, would it be more like 1000:1 or 1:1 or 1000:1 or something else?
Value them primarily? Uhhh… maybe 1:3 against? I admit I have never actually pondered this question before today; but 1 in 4 uncontrolled superintelligences spending most of their resources on tiny squiggles doesn’t sound off by, like, more than 1-2 orders of magnitude in either direction.
Clocks are not actually very complicated; how plausible is it on your model that these goals are as complicated as, say, a typical human’s preferences about how human civilization is structured?
It wouldn’t shock me if their goals end up far more complicated than human ones; the most obvious pathway for it is (a) gradient descent turning out to produce internal preferences much faster than natural selection + biological reinforcement learning and (b) some significant fraction of those preferences being retained under reflection. (Where (b) strikes me as way less probable than (a), but not wholly forbidden.) The second most obvious pathway is if a bunch of weird detailed noise appears in the first version of the reflective process and then freezes.
Value them primarily? Uhhh… maybe 1:3 against? I admit I have never actually pondered this question before today; but 1 in 4 uncontrolled superintelligences spending most of their resources on tiny squiggles doesn’t sound off by, like, more than 1-2 orders of magnitude in either direction.
It wouldn’t shock me if their goals end up far more complicated than human ones; the most obvious pathway for it is (a) gradient descent turning out to produce internal preferences much faster than natural selection + biological reinforcement learning and (b) some significant fraction of those preferences being retained under reflection. (Where (b) strikes me as way less probable than (a), but not wholly forbidden.) The second most obvious pathway is if a bunch of weird detailed noise appears in the first version of the reflective process and then freezes.