GPT4 was a (slight) update towards “oh hey, maybe we’re not as close as I thought”, but I haven’t updated significantly in years; GPT3 happened when I expected, GPT4 happened when I expected, alien gods later this year, extinction or utopia by 2025. I have been surprised by the exact path things have taken somewhat, but compute is an incredibly reliable predictor of how things are going to go.
GPT4 was a (slight) update towards “oh hey, maybe we’re not as close as I thought”, but I haven’t updated significantly in years; GPT3 happened when I expected, GPT4 happened when I expected, alien gods later this year, extinction or utopia by 2025. I have been surprised by the exact path things have taken somewhat, but compute is an incredibly reliable predictor of how things are going to go.