Small teams have at times suddenly acquired disproportionate power, and I’m sure their associates who anticipated this possibility used the usual human ways to consider that team’s “friendliness.” But I can’t recall a time when such sudden small team power came from an UberTool scenario of rapidly mutually improving tools.
In August 1945 an ubertool was demonstrated two times in Japan.
Relatedly, there have been numerous instances of individual humans taking over entire national governments by exploiting high-leverage, usually unethical, opportunities. A typical case involves a military general staging a coup or an elected leader legislating unlimited power unto himself. None of these instances look anything like firms competing for resources. Instead, we have single actors who are intelligent and opportunistic, unethical or morally atypicall, and risk-tolerant enough to accept the consequences of a failed coup.
A UFAI looks much more like a dictator than a firm.
From “Friendly Teams” …
In August 1945 an ubertool was demonstrated two times in Japan.
But the United States was not a “small team”.
Relatedly, there have been numerous instances of individual humans taking over entire national governments by exploiting high-leverage, usually unethical, opportunities. A typical case involves a military general staging a coup or an elected leader legislating unlimited power unto himself. None of these instances look anything like firms competing for resources. Instead, we have single actors who are intelligent and opportunistic, unethical or morally atypicall, and risk-tolerant enough to accept the consequences of a failed coup.
A UFAI looks much more like a dictator than a firm.
All those require the an least implicit cooperation of a lot of other people, e.g., the general’s army.