I don’t fully agree with gears, but I think it’s worth thinking about. If you’re talking about “proportion of people who sincerely think that way”, and if we’re in the context of outreach, I doubt that matters as much as “proportion of people who will see someone else point at you and make ‘eww another AI slop spewer’ noises, then decide out of self-preservation that they’d better not say anything positive about you or reveal that they’ve changed their mind about anything because of you”. Also, “creatives who feel threatened by role displacement or think generative AI is morally equivalent to super-plagiarism (whether or not this is due to inaccurate mental models of how it works)” seems like an interest group that might have disproportionate reach.
But I’m also not sure how far that pans out in importance-weighting. I expect my perception of the above to be pretty biased by bubble effects, but I also think we’ve (especially in the USA, but with a bunch of impact elsewhere due to American cultural-feed dominance) just gone through a period where an overarching memeplex that includes that kind of thing has had massive influence, and I expect that to have a long linger time even if the wave has somewhat crested by now.
On the whole I am pretty divided about whether actively skirting around the landmines there is a good idea or not, though my intuition suggests some kind of mixed strategy split between operators would be best.
I don’t fully agree with gears, but I think it’s worth thinking about. If you’re talking about “proportion of people who sincerely think that way”, and if we’re in the context of outreach, I doubt that matters as much as “proportion of people who will see someone else point at you and make ‘eww another AI slop spewer’ noises, then decide out of self-preservation that they’d better not say anything positive about you or reveal that they’ve changed their mind about anything because of you”. Also, “creatives who feel threatened by role displacement or think generative AI is morally equivalent to super-plagiarism (whether or not this is due to inaccurate mental models of how it works)” seems like an interest group that might have disproportionate reach.
But I’m also not sure how far that pans out in importance-weighting. I expect my perception of the above to be pretty biased by bubble effects, but I also think we’ve (especially in the USA, but with a bunch of impact elsewhere due to American cultural-feed dominance) just gone through a period where an overarching memeplex that includes that kind of thing has had massive influence, and I expect that to have a long linger time even if the wave has somewhat crested by now.
On the whole I am pretty divided about whether actively skirting around the landmines there is a good idea or not, though my intuition suggests some kind of mixed strategy split between operators would be best.