I’m not that confident about how the Arizona fab is going. I’ve mostly heard second hand accounts.
I’m very confident that TSMC’s edge is more than cheap labor. It would be basically impossible for another country, even one with low median wages, to replicate TSMC. Singapore and China have both tried, and can’t compete. At this point in time, TSMC has a basically insurmountable human capital and institutional capital advantage, that enables it to produce leading node chips that no other company in the world can produce. Samsung will catch up, sure. But by the time they catch up to the TSMC’s 2024 state of the art, TSMC will have moved on to the next node.
My understanding is that, short of TSMC being destroyed by war with mainland China, or some similar disaster, it’s not feasible for any company to catch up with TSMC within the next 10 years, at least.
I’m very confident that TSMC’s edge is more than cheap labor.
They have cumulative investments over the years, but based on accounts of Americans who have worked there, they don’t sound extremely advanced. Instead they sound very hard working, which gives them a strong ability to execute. Also, I still think these delays are somewhat artificial. There are natsec concerns for Taiwan to let TSMC diversify, and TSMC seems to think it can wring a lot of money out of the US by holding up construction. They are, after all, a monopoly.
Samsung will catch up, sure. But by the time they catch up to the TSMC’s 2024 state of the art, TSMC will have moved on to the next node. ... it’s not feasible for any company to catch up with TSMC within the next 10 years, at least.
Is Samsung 5 generations behind? I know that nanometers don’t really mean anything anymore, but TSMC and Samsung’s 4 nm don’t seem 10 years apart based on the tidbits I get online.
Liu said construction on the shell of the factory had begun, but the Taiwanese chipmaking titan needed to review “how much incentives … the US government can provide.”
Is Samsung 5 generations behind? I know that nanometers don’t really mean anything anymore, but TSMC and Samsung’s 4 nm don’t seem 10 years apart based on the tidbits I get online.
I’m not claiming they’re 10 years behind. My understanding from talking with people is that TSMC is around 2 to 3 years behind TSMC. My claim is that Samsung and TSMC are advancing at ~the same rate, so Samsung can’t close that 2 to 3 year gap.
I’m not that confident about how the Arizona fab is going. I’ve mostly heard second hand accounts.
I’m very confident that TSMC’s edge is more than cheap labor. It would be basically impossible for another country, even one with low median wages, to replicate TSMC. Singapore and China have both tried, and can’t compete. At this point in time, TSMC has a basically insurmountable human capital and institutional capital advantage, that enables it to produce leading node chips that no other company in the world can produce. Samsung will catch up, sure. But by the time they catch up to the TSMC’s 2024 state of the art, TSMC will have moved on to the next node.
My understanding is that, short of TSMC being destroyed by war with mainland China, or some similar disaster, it’s not feasible for any company to catch up with TSMC within the next 10 years, at least.
So, from their site “TSMC Arizona’s first fab is on track to begin production leveraging 4nm technology in first half of 2025.” You are probably thinking of their other Arizona fabs. Those are indeed delayed. However, they cite “funding” as the issue.[1] Based on how quickly TSMC changed tune on delays once they got Chips funding, I think it’s largely artificial, and a means to extract CHIPS money.
They have cumulative investments over the years, but based on accounts of Americans who have worked there, they don’t sound extremely advanced. Instead they sound very hard working, which gives them a strong ability to execute. Also, I still think these delays are somewhat artificial. There are natsec concerns for Taiwan to let TSMC diversify, and TSMC seems to think it can wring a lot of money out of the US by holding up construction. They are, after all, a monopoly.
Is Samsung 5 generations behind? I know that nanometers don’t really mean anything anymore, but TSMC and Samsung’s 4 nm don’t seem 10 years apart based on the tidbits I get online.
Liu said construction on the shell of the factory had begun, but the Taiwanese chipmaking titan needed to review “how much incentives … the US government can provide.”
I’m not claiming they’re 10 years behind. My understanding from talking with people is that TSMC is around 2 to 3 years behind TSMC. My claim is that Samsung and TSMC are advancing at ~the same rate, so Samsung can’t close that 2 to 3 year gap.
Oh yeah I agree. Misread that. Still, maybe not so confident. Market leaders often don’t last. Competition always catches up.