1) The Earth is presently warming. I estimate that greenhouse gas emissions are a very significant component (~70%) of the long-term (100 years) climate change and a significant component (~30%) of short-term climate change (20 years). I think the IPCC is right, though this is largely because of their wide error bars (wide error bars should also be applied to my estimates above!)
2) It was presented as simple fact, and I accepted it. As I studied physics, my understanding became more nuanced, but nothing I found contradicted the initial impression. There was a period when I had a much higher estimate of the probability of massive cascading ice-slides that would eventually (not soon) raise the sea level noticeably over a short period. Recently I have attended a number of climate-related talks at APS conferences. That filled in certain gaps in my understanding (of course, I still have large remaining gaps)
3) The data since 1998 had been steadily decreasing my confidence since about 2004. Then I found out about the deep-sea temperature increases, and my confidence was restored most of the way (unfortunately—I’d been hoping we were missing an important effect that made GHG not matter so much).
Also, though it changed my expectations, it didn’t really change my beliefs: I found out that CO2 emissions have been dropping.
Climategate’s impact: Very little. If someone looked through my old email they’d find similar shorthand that might with an uncharitable reading look like I was basically making up my results, or applying very biased filters to them (I wasn’t). Yeah, I ‘questioned’ my beliefs when I first read about it, but if this were a courtroom, the defense only had to cross-examine to acquit.
4) The recent posts contained some new information, but not that much. I don’t know how useful this is.
1) The Earth is presently warming. I estimate that greenhouse gas emissions are a very significant component (~70%) of the long-term (100 years) climate change and a significant component (~30%) of short-term climate change (20 years). I think the IPCC is right, though this is largely because of their wide error bars (wide error bars should also be applied to my estimates above!)
2) It was presented as simple fact, and I accepted it. As I studied physics, my understanding became more nuanced, but nothing I found contradicted the initial impression. There was a period when I had a much higher estimate of the probability of massive cascading ice-slides that would eventually (not soon) raise the sea level noticeably over a short period. Recently I have attended a number of climate-related talks at APS conferences. That filled in certain gaps in my understanding (of course, I still have large remaining gaps)
3) The data since 1998 had been steadily decreasing my confidence since about 2004. Then I found out about the deep-sea temperature increases, and my confidence was restored most of the way (unfortunately—I’d been hoping we were missing an important effect that made GHG not matter so much).
Also, though it changed my expectations, it didn’t really change my beliefs: I found out that CO2 emissions have been dropping.
Climategate’s impact: Very little. If someone looked through my old email they’d find similar shorthand that might with an uncharitable reading look like I was basically making up my results, or applying very biased filters to them (I wasn’t). Yeah, I ‘questioned’ my beliefs when I first read about it, but if this were a courtroom, the defense only had to cross-examine to acquit.
4) The recent posts contained some new information, but not that much. I don’t know how useful this is.