For Alaska vs. Bali, alternative answer is “You could be convinced that either Alaska or Bali is a good vacation destination”. It’s an interesting question whether this could actually win in debate. I think it might have a better chance in Factored Evaluation, because we can spin up two seperate trees to view the most compelling argument for Alaska and the most compelling argument for Bali and verify that these are convincing. In debate, you’d need view either Alaska Argument before Bali Argument, or Bali Argument before Alaska Argument, and you might just be convinced by the first argument you see in which case you wouldn’t agree that you could be convinced either way.
How about a third AI that gives a (hidden) probability about which one you’ll be convinced by, conditional on which argument you see first? That hidden probability is passed to someone else, then the debate is run, and the result recorded. If that third AI gives good calibration and good discrimination over multiple experiments, then we can consider its predictions accurate in the future.
For Alaska vs. Bali, alternative answer is “You could be convinced that either Alaska or Bali is a good vacation destination”. It’s an interesting question whether this could actually win in debate. I think it might have a better chance in Factored Evaluation, because we can spin up two seperate trees to view the most compelling argument for Alaska and the most compelling argument for Bali and verify that these are convincing. In debate, you’d need view either Alaska Argument before Bali Argument, or Bali Argument before Alaska Argument, and you might just be convinced by the first argument you see in which case you wouldn’t agree that you could be convinced either way.
How about a third AI that gives a (hidden) probability about which one you’ll be convinced by, conditional on which argument you see first? That hidden probability is passed to someone else, then the debate is run, and the result recorded. If that third AI gives good calibration and good discrimination over multiple experiments, then we can consider its predictions accurate in the future.