Prediction: In 6-12 months people are going to start leaving Deepmind and Anthropic for similar sounding reasons to those currently leaving OpenAI (50% likelihood).
> Surface level read of what is happening at OpenAI; employees are uncomfortable with specific safety policies. > Deeper, more transferable, harder to solve problem; no person that is sufficiently well-meaning and close enough to the coal face at Big Labs can ever be reassured they’re doing the right thing continuing to work for a company whose mission is to build AGI.
Basically, this is less about “OpenAI is bad” and more “Making AGI is bad”.
I think this is kinda likely, but will note that people seem to take quite a while before they end up leaving.
If OpenAI (both recently and the first exodus) is any indication, I think it might take longer for issues to gel and become clear enough to have folks more-than-quietly leave.
Prediction: In 6-12 months people are going to start leaving Deepmind and Anthropic for similar sounding reasons to those currently leaving OpenAI (50% likelihood).
> Surface level read of what is happening at OpenAI; employees are uncomfortable with specific safety policies.
> Deeper, more transferable, harder to solve problem; no person that is sufficiently well-meaning and close enough to the coal face at Big Labs can ever be reassured they’re doing the right thing continuing to work for a company whose mission is to build AGI.
Basically, this is less about “OpenAI is bad” and more “Making AGI is bad”.
I think this is kinda likely, but will note that people seem to take quite a while before they end up leaving.
If OpenAI (both recently and the first exodus) is any indication, I think it might take longer for issues to gel and become clear enough to have folks more-than-quietly leave.
I’d be pretty surprised
Hey mate thanks for the comment. I’m finding “pretty surprised” hard to interpret. Is that closer to 1% or 15%?