Could you refer me to any authoritive scientific body that defines the test of what scientific results are defined as reliably produced over real-money bets?
I think you can make an argument that the scientific establishment should work that way, but if you consider that to be the sole standard you have to throw out most scientific findings because nobody ever bet on them.
You name any statistical test you think you can beat and I’ll take a bet at 10:1 odds. Heck it 2:1
I think Dean Radin or Bem might be open to do a run at the Ganzfeld experiment provided the amount of money involved justifies the effort or there reputation to be gained by a prominent skeptic holding the other side of the bet.
On the other hand I’m personally not in the business of doing parapsychology experiments.
You are asking me to advance an argument from authority? Seriously?
nobody ever bet on them
That’s not true. You place implicit bets on the reliable reproducibility of scientific results every time you use any piece of modern technology. If you’ve ever flown in an airplane you have actually staked your life on the proposition that scientific results are reliably reproducible.
And, BTW, the reason very few people ever place “real” bets on the reliable reproducibility of scientific results is that there’s a shortage of suckers stupid enough to bet against it.
I’m personally not in the business of doing parapsychology experiments.
Aaaaand… here come the excuses. What a surprise.
I’m not asking you to conduct the experiment, I’m just asking you how much you’d be willing to bet.
You place implicit bets on the reliable reproducibility of scientific results every time you use any piece of modern technology. If you’ve ever flown in an airplane you have actually staked your life on the proposition that scientific results are reliably reproducible.
There a plenty of Yoga people who produce reliable Yoga results by using a theory that assumes the existance of chakra’s. That doesn’t prove the theory of chakra’s to be right. Successful technology is not the same thing as successful science.
Futhermore there’s a lot of science which is not effectively used in technology, do you consider that to be illegimate?
I’m not asking you to conduct the experiment, I’m just asking you how much you’d be willing to bet.
The core idea with betting is to be specific about the terms of the bet. If you wan to bet about whether Bem or Dean Radin produce publishable statistically significant results for paranormal phenomena in the future, then I would be pretty confident that they do.
It’s just that I don’t expect you to take such a bet, because you likely would want some sort of tamperproof enviroment.
That’s where things get complicated and I’m not interested in setting up such an enivroment. People like Bem or Radin on the other hand seem to me open to be engaged in such a way. People who are publically on the record for stating that their reason not to participate in Randi experiment was that their effect sizes where lower than what’s required for Randi.
For my myself the topic isn’t worth the effort of building up experiments and investing hundreds of hours for that.
Apart from that I personally don’t take bets with strangers and if I would than rather about topics where there definite evidence in one direction and not topics that are grey.
Successful technology is not the same thing as successful science.
That’s why I specified modern technology. Computers. Airplanes. Microwave ovens.
Futhermore there’s a lot of science which is not effectively used in technology, do you consider that to be illegimate?
That’s a non-sequitur. Your claim was:
you have to throw out most scientific findings because nobody ever bet on them
In fact, every time you turn on your cell phone you are placing an implicit bet on vast swaths of scientific knowledge. That there might be additional areas of scientific knowledge that you aren’t placing bets on doesn’t change that.
The core idea with betting is to be specific about the terms of the bet.
Here are the terms: choose your favorite psi experiment where the odds of a positive result based on pure chance are objectively computable. Let’s say those odds are N:1. We bet at M*N:1 odds for some multiplier M>=2. If you make M larger than 2 that indicates greater confidence and you get more bragging rights should you win. We iterate until you either concede, or you have won $10,000 from me.
their reason not to participate in Randi experiment was that their effect sizes where lower than what’s required for Randi.
There are well known techniques for extracting signals from noisy channels to any desired level of statistical confidence. Physicist regularly get six-sigma results (odds of resulting by change of less than one in 3 million) from signal-to-noise ratios in the negative tens of dB. This is part of what it means to be “reliably reproducible.”
you likely would want some sort of tamperproof enviroment.
Well, duh. Any intellectually honest seeker of the truth should want some assurances that they are not being deceived.
Could you refer me to any authoritive scientific body that defines the test of what scientific results are defined as reliably produced over real-money bets?
I think you can make an argument that the scientific establishment should work that way, but if you consider that to be the sole standard you have to throw out most scientific findings because nobody ever bet on them.
I think Dean Radin or Bem might be open to do a run at the Ganzfeld experiment provided the amount of money involved justifies the effort or there reputation to be gained by a prominent skeptic holding the other side of the bet.
On the other hand I’m personally not in the business of doing parapsychology experiments.
You are asking me to advance an argument from authority? Seriously?
That’s not true. You place implicit bets on the reliable reproducibility of scientific results every time you use any piece of modern technology. If you’ve ever flown in an airplane you have actually staked your life on the proposition that scientific results are reliably reproducible.
And, BTW, the reason very few people ever place “real” bets on the reliable reproducibility of scientific results is that there’s a shortage of suckers stupid enough to bet against it.
Aaaaand… here come the excuses. What a surprise.
I’m not asking you to conduct the experiment, I’m just asking you how much you’d be willing to bet.
For my part, I’ll put up $10,000.
There a plenty of Yoga people who produce reliable Yoga results by using a theory that assumes the existance of chakra’s. That doesn’t prove the theory of chakra’s to be right. Successful technology is not the same thing as successful science.
Futhermore there’s a lot of science which is not effectively used in technology, do you consider that to be illegimate?
The core idea with betting is to be specific about the terms of the bet. If you wan to bet about whether Bem or Dean Radin produce publishable statistically significant results for paranormal phenomena in the future, then I would be pretty confident that they do.
It’s just that I don’t expect you to take such a bet, because you likely would want some sort of tamperproof enviroment. That’s where things get complicated and I’m not interested in setting up such an enivroment. People like Bem or Radin on the other hand seem to me open to be engaged in such a way. People who are publically on the record for stating that their reason not to participate in Randi experiment was that their effect sizes where lower than what’s required for Randi.
For my myself the topic isn’t worth the effort of building up experiments and investing hundreds of hours for that.
Apart from that I personally don’t take bets with strangers and if I would than rather about topics where there definite evidence in one direction and not topics that are grey.
That’s why I specified modern technology. Computers. Airplanes. Microwave ovens.
That’s a non-sequitur. Your claim was:
In fact, every time you turn on your cell phone you are placing an implicit bet on vast swaths of scientific knowledge. That there might be additional areas of scientific knowledge that you aren’t placing bets on doesn’t change that.
Here are the terms: choose your favorite psi experiment where the odds of a positive result based on pure chance are objectively computable. Let’s say those odds are N:1. We bet at M*N:1 odds for some multiplier M>=2. If you make M larger than 2 that indicates greater confidence and you get more bragging rights should you win. We iterate until you either concede, or you have won $10,000 from me.
There are well known techniques for extracting signals from noisy channels to any desired level of statistical confidence. Physicist regularly get six-sigma results (odds of resulting by change of less than one in 3 million) from signal-to-noise ratios in the negative tens of dB. This is part of what it means to be “reliably reproducible.”
Well, duh. Any intellectually honest seeker of the truth should want some assurances that they are not being deceived.