you should always take the one box. The only reason people think that two boxes might be the right answer is because they refuse to relinquish the intuition that they have free will despite the overwhelming (hypothetical in the case of Newcomb’s paradox) evidence against it.
You sound as though they have some choice as to which box to take, or whether or not to believe in free will. But if your argument is correct, then they do not.
You sound as though they have some choice as to which box to take
Do I? That wasn’t my intention. They don’t have a choice in which box to take, any more than they have a choice in whether or not they find my argument compelling. If they find my argument compelling then (if they are rational) they will take 1 box and win $1M. If they don’t, then (maybe) they won’t. There’s no real “choice” involved (though there is the very compelling illusion of choice).
This is actually a perfect illustration of the limits of free will even in our own awareness: you can’t decide whether to find a particular argument compelling or not, it’s something that just happens to you.
You sound as though they have some choice as to which box to take, or whether or not to believe in free will. But if your argument is correct, then they do not.
Do I? That wasn’t my intention. They don’t have a choice in which box to take, any more than they have a choice in whether or not they find my argument compelling. If they find my argument compelling then (if they are rational) they will take 1 box and win $1M. If they don’t, then (maybe) they won’t. There’s no real “choice” involved (though there is the very compelling illusion of choice).
This is actually a perfect illustration of the limits of free will even in our own awareness: you can’t decide whether to find a particular argument compelling or not, it’s something that just happens to you.