She’s just one human. There’s no reason to think she’s exceptional. Just another average human being.
Yet, she is arrogant enough to beg for money for a chance to be saved.
Now, it’s obvious that these aren’t independent variables, but we can assume that, if anything, vaccination will increase both life expectancy and gdp pc, so, for simplicity, we can do a very conservative calculation and assume they’re going to be constant.
EP = Expected productivity of one 5 year old Kenyan children till death = $1746*(63-5) = $101,268
C = Cost per 100k vaccinated children = 100k*$3.5 = $350k
Return on cryogenics ASSUMING 100% probability of success = $2806214/$35000 = 80.17 = 8017%
The real expected value is probably highly negative, but I shall abstain from estimating the cryogenics’ probability of success.
This calculation is extremely conservative. Especially because the time value of money is completely ignored.
In other words, this is almost surely a bad investment. In other words, if you give her even $1, you’re a complete idiot. Excepting the case where you know her personally.
Even if you’re, for example, a white supremacist, and the idea of dying Kenyan children makes you happy, there’re many ways where you could help white people in a much, much more effective way.
I hope that this is a scam. Not because I care about some bitch, but because the less money the idiots have, the more just the world is, and the money in the scammer’s hands is likely to be used much more wisely.
If the story is true, she’s at least exceptional in knowing how to ask and what to ask for. I expect her to be top-10% by my ranking.
It’s not disgusting that she’s begging for a chance at life. I’d do the same, even knowing that I was effectively asking people to spend less on Kenyans. Perhaps you mean it’s disgusting that her asking might work?
Imputing racism is overdone. Even if you want to slap some sense into people, please don’t go there (yes, you said “even if”, but you also chose Kenya).
“bitch”. I don’t care, but you already sufficiently signaled that you care very much that others don’t agree with you.
Conditional on cryonics being successful, immortality for living, non-frozen people would most likely be successful too, and kids in malaria-infested area, if saved by mosquito nets, would be likely to survive to that day. (And personally I think negligible senescence is more likely to be achieved in the next half century or so than reanimation of cryonic patients to be achieved ever.)
So, unless there’s some reason to believe that 1) reanimation of cryonic patients will eventually be achieved, but 2) that won’t happen before children living today will be dead, and 3) that cryonic preservation won’t get much cheaper in the future than it is today, you are more likely to save a life forever by donating $X to the AMF than $X to this girl on Reddit (even conditional on this not being a scam).
She’s just one human. There’s no reason to think she’s exceptional. Just another average human being. Yet, she is arrogant enough to beg for money for a chance to be saved.
There is nothing arrogant about trying to avoid perma-death.
IAWYC (and upvoted because I don’t think it deserves to be that low), but 1) you’re being too optimistic about the cheapest way to save lives through charity (according to GiveWell, that’s the Anti Malaria Foundation at $1600 per life), 2) the life expectancy at 23 years doesn’t equal the life expectancy at birth minus 23 years (life expectancy at birth takes into account that some people die before the age of 23, and you already know she’s not one of them), and 3) valuing someone’s life according to how much money the average person in their country makes over their lifetime sounds somewhat fucked up to me.
the less money the idiots have, the more just the world is
I believe that I would enjoy living in a world where more assholes were as honest about their priorities as you, sir or ma’am. I think the rest of us would get a lot more done.
(Of course the real problem here is your ill-gotten hope that justice exists outside either literature or state-subsidized vengeance. But it’s easier to convince someone they’ve been honest in a socially inappropriate fashion than it is to convince them their worldview is flawed and naîve.)
This is disgusting.
She’s just one human. There’s no reason to think she’s exceptional. Just another average human being. Yet, she is arrogant enough to beg for money for a chance to be saved.
One dose of a pneumococcal vaccine costs $3.5.
M = Mortality due to pneumococcal disease in children under 5 years of age in Kenya is 323/100k.
Life expectancy in Kenya is 63.07.
GDP (PPP) per capita is $1,746.
Now, it’s obvious that these aren’t independent variables, but we can assume that, if anything, vaccination will increase both life expectancy and gdp pc, so, for simplicity, we can do a very conservative calculation and assume they’re going to be constant.
EP = Expected productivity of one 5 year old Kenyan children till death =
$1746*(63-5) = $101,268C = Cost per 100k vaccinated children =
100k*$3.5 = $350kReturn on vaccination =
EP*M/C = $32,709,564/$350k = 93.45 = 9345%Now, the rate of return for the freezing of this girl:
Female life expectancy in USA = 81.05
GDP (pc) is $48,386
Girl’s expected productivity =
(81-23)*$48,386 = $2,806,214Return on cryogenics ASSUMING 100% probability of success =
$2806214/$35000 = 80.17 = 8017%The real expected value is probably highly negative, but I shall abstain from estimating the cryogenics’ probability of success.This calculation is extremely conservative. Especially because the time value of money is completely ignored.
In other words, this is almost surely a bad investment. In other words, if you give her even $1, you’re a complete idiot. Excepting the case where you know her personally.
Even if you’re, for example, a white supremacist, and the idea of dying Kenyan children makes you happy, there’re many ways where you could help white people in a much, much more effective way.
I hope that this is a scam. Not because I care about some bitch, but because the less money the idiots have, the more just the world is, and the money in the scammer’s hands is likely to be used much more wisely.
There are nicer ways to put this sentiment. You ignored them in favor of sounding like a jerk. Downvoted.
If the story is true, she’s at least exceptional in knowing how to ask and what to ask for. I expect her to be top-10% by my ranking.
It’s not disgusting that she’s begging for a chance at life. I’d do the same, even knowing that I was effectively asking people to spend less on Kenyans. Perhaps you mean it’s disgusting that her asking might work?
Imputing racism is overdone. Even if you want to slap some sense into people, please don’t go there (yes, you said “even if”, but you also chose Kenya).
“bitch”. I don’t care, but you already sufficiently signaled that you care very much that others don’t agree with you.
Conditional on cryonics being successful, the present life expectancy is not that relevant in determining lifetime productivity...
Conditional on cryonics being successful, immortality for living, non-frozen people would most likely be successful too, and kids in malaria-infested area, if saved by mosquito nets, would be likely to survive to that day. (And personally I think negligible senescence is more likely to be achieved in the next half century or so than reanimation of cryonic patients to be achieved ever.)
So, unless there’s some reason to believe that 1) reanimation of cryonic patients will eventually be achieved, but 2) that won’t happen before children living today will be dead, and 3) that cryonic preservation won’t get much cheaper in the future than it is today, you are more likely to save a life forever by donating $X to the AMF than $X to this girl on Reddit (even conditional on this not being a scam).
There is nothing arrogant about trying to avoid perma-death.
This point (or similar ones) has been covered before, I believe. (Effective charity is a really big thing around here!)
IAWYC (and upvoted because I don’t think it deserves to be that low), but 1) you’re being too optimistic about the cheapest way to save lives through charity (according to GiveWell, that’s the Anti Malaria Foundation at $1600 per life), 2) the life expectancy at 23 years doesn’t equal the life expectancy at birth minus 23 years (life expectancy at birth takes into account that some people die before the age of 23, and you already know she’s not one of them), and 3) valuing someone’s life according to how much money the average person in their country makes over their lifetime sounds somewhat fucked up to me.
I believe that I would enjoy living in a world where more assholes were as honest about their priorities as you, sir or ma’am. I think the rest of us would get a lot more done.
(Of course the real problem here is your ill-gotten hope that justice exists outside either literature or state-subsidized vengeance. But it’s easier to convince someone they’ve been honest in a socially inappropriate fashion than it is to convince them their worldview is flawed and naîve.)