Are there any books you’d recommend?
Bryan Caplan’s references section in his Myth of the Rational Voter book has cites for many good sources.
It would seem that the only psi-friendly explanation of the weak results from parapsychology then would be something like actively evasive psi. You say similar hypotheses have shown up to explain the lack of certain expected phenomena in macroeconomics? Or, might you explain the connection?
I was referring to data-mining for correlations to produce predictive rules using historical datasets of country growth rates, rules which then fail badly when applied to new datasets. Beliefs in stronger causal conclusions persist, and folk with such beliefs talk about how the processes of growth are changing over time, or the great difficulty of pulling conclusions from the noisy data. The closest think to “actively evasive psi” would probably be academic claims to have found predictive rules for stock and other liquid markets: “my data-mined rule was for real, but now that I’ve published the markets are taking it into account, which is why it no longer works.”
I’m starting to think that maybe all evidence I have for psi is incommunicable. Bleh!
The evidential part of intuitions or personal psi experiences are communicable (save for the possibility of conscious lies, but it’s pretty clear that those are not needed), a bigger dataset of intuitions is better than a single case, etc. Robin’s common priors paper is relevant here.
I was referring to data-mining for correlations to produce predictive rules using historical datasets of country growth rates, rules which then fail badly when applied to new datasets. Beliefs in stronger causal conclusions persist, and folk with such beliefs talk about how the processes of growth are changing over time, or the great difficulty of pulling conclusions from the noisy data. The closest think to “actively evasive psi” would probably be academic claims to have found predictive rules for stock and other liquid markets: “my data-mined rule was for real, but now that I’ve published the markets are taking it into account, which is why it no longer works.”
The evidential part of intuitions or personal psi experiences are communicable (save for the possibility of conscious lies, but it’s pretty clear that those are not needed), a bigger dataset of intuitions is better than a single case, etc. Robin’s common priors paper is relevant here.