My claim is that you can’t come up with such a conjecture where it makes sense to change the probability away from 1⁄6. That is why you should not update.
I disagree. I’m not sure it’s provable(maybe in professional poker players??), but if you’ve played the bet a lot of times, you could have come up with cues* about whether your friend has got the same roll(or number on the die) as the last time or not.
-- not sure how verbalizable or not it is .(which implies harder to teach to someone else).
So you should update after you see that she rolled some number, and saw her reaction—but this says nothing about updating again because she wrote the number down,
My claim is that you can’t come up with such a conjecture where it makes sense to change the probability away from 1⁄6. That is why you should not update.
I disagree. I’m not sure it’s provable(maybe in professional poker players??), but if you’ve played the bet a lot of times, you could have come up with cues* about whether your friend has got the same roll(or number on the die) as the last time or not.
-- not sure how verbalizable or not it is .(which implies harder to teach to someone else).
So you should update after you see that she rolled some number, and saw her reaction—but this says nothing about updating again because she wrote the number down,