I associate Knightian Uncertainty with Eliezer’s description of Expected Creative Surprises.
That is to say, I am uncertain what a rival company will do, but I know they will try to achieve a goal. When achieving that goal involves surprising me, I should expect them to surprise me even though I’m using the best model I can to model them.
I associate Knightian Uncertainty with Eliezer’s description of Expected Creative Surprises.
That is to say, I am uncertain what a rival company will do, but I know they will try to achieve a goal. When achieving that goal involves surprising me, I should expect them to surprise me even though I’m using the best model I can to model them.