That’s what I thought when I saw the passage quoted from the book (p95), but then I got the book and looked at the endnote (p301) and Tetlock says:
I am willing to make a big reputational bet that the superforecasters beat the intelligence analysts in each year in which such comparisons were possible.
which must be illegal if he has seen the comparisons.
He likely worked with a censor about how and what he can write. I think that line can be very well explained as the result of a compromise with the censor.
I’m not sure that X% better has a unit that’s always the same.
I don’t think that’s the case. It’s rather that it’s classified information that he can’t reveal directly because it’s classified.
That’s what I thought when I saw the passage quoted from the book (p95), but then I got the book and looked at the endnote (p301) and Tetlock says:
which must be illegal if he has seen the comparisons.
He likely worked with a censor about how and what he can write. I think that line can be very well explained as the result of a compromise with the censor.