Aronwall will publically state that he drops his belief in Christianity after discussing his belief on his blog with other rationalists before the end of 2013.
And lo, the prediction turned out false. (As, I should add for the avoidance of doubt, ChristianKI expected: the probability attached to that prediction was only 30%.)
I made a prediction on predictionbook:
And lo, the prediction turned out false. (As, I should add for the avoidance of doubt, ChristianKI expected: the probability attached to that prediction was only 30%.)