I’ve thought about doing something similar with posing a question and offering a bounty for responses to the extent that they change my mind. I haven’t pulled the trigger yet. I don’t know why. Kudos to you for doing so!
I’m excited about mechanism design in this space. Like, if you have a prediction market (or forecasting question with a good aggregation algorithm), you can sort of selectively throw out pieces of information, and then reward people based on how much those pieces moved the market. (And yes, there are of course lots of goodhart-y failure modes to iron out to make it work.)
In this case I’m not going to be quite so formal. I don’t have that strong of an initial view, so it might often be more of rewarding “provided a very useful write-up” than “provide a compelling counterargument to a thoroughly considered belief”.
I’ve thought about doing something similar with posing a question and offering a bounty for responses to the extent that they change my mind. I haven’t pulled the trigger yet. I don’t know why. Kudos to you for doing so!
In any context where good faith isn’t to be expected (which I’d hope doesn’t apply here), bear in mind that there are exploits.
I’m excited about mechanism design in this space. Like, if you have a prediction market (or forecasting question with a good aggregation algorithm), you can sort of selectively throw out pieces of information, and then reward people based on how much those pieces moved the market. (And yes, there are of course lots of goodhart-y failure modes to iron out to make it work.)
In this case I’m not going to be quite so formal. I don’t have that strong of an initial view, so it might often be more of rewarding “provided a very useful write-up” than “provide a compelling counterargument to a thoroughly considered belief”.